Don’t be fooled into thinking that Google (GOOG) is simply out to play “keep away” from Microsoft (MSFT) et al and simultaneously spread its wildly successful advertising auction model across multiple forms of media.  This is all part of the game but Google has more in store for advertising—changing the actual currency used by the industry itself.

Attention… engagement… call it what you want it’s here and it’s now.  It’s what will soon become the new “currency” for advertising.  What’s ultimately behind the Google - DoubleClick deal that has everyone (including former Anti-trust Kingpins AT&T and Microsoft) screaming bloody murder?  The attention of consumers; not their clicks nor their page views but something else.

Words like privacy, monopoly and “too dominant” are being tossed around… as are research documents that point at the “good guys (a.k.a. Google) being part of the problem” when it comes to the systematic gaming of search engines and user’s browsers for commercial gain.  Bye the way… make no mistake, the “affiliate” element is fundamental to Web advertising.  The affiliate model is what powers the bulk of online advertising revenue. 

We’re on the cusp of a shake-out that could come sooner than pundits predict.

Ad industry futurist, Sam Harrleson of CostPerNews says,

“Google is paving the way for audience (attention)” and what he calls “content counting that makes sense.”

Pay Attention to Attention
While it’s been wowing Wall Street and scaring the pants off of the traditional advertising and measurement industries, Google has (all along) been quietly planning to help foster radical change. 

By changing the actual currency of advertising it stands to thrive, indeed, dominate (though strategic alliances) in an environment that seems increasingly out of control (controlled by users/consumers).  Indeed, Google’s plan to dodge the anti-trust bullet is a brilliant one and rooted in ceding control to consumers.

So how will it fundamentally change advertising—beyond the spread of its auction meme? 

Simply stated, page views and impressions (CPMs)... clicks (CPCs) and actions (CPA sales, leads) will all be challenged.  Yes, this is Google’s bread and butter today (it’s advertising’s for that matter!).  No, these models will NOT go away as measurement devices that connect with advertising payment schemes.  BUT, they will be challenged.  They are being challenged—today—if you’re paying attention. 

No, this is not some pie-in-the-sky, half-baked scheme.  There are real names involved here (thought leaders, accomplished entrepreneurs) and they’re banding together.  Some, like Mr. Harrelson, are even contemplating a move away from a link-based world where the Web’s advertising ‘operating system’ relies less on them.  Consider, as an example, podcasts and other forms of emerging social media that allow consumers to ”time shift.” Where are the links within that medium?  Exactly—there aren’t’ any.  Monetizing the content within podcasts must be achieved in other ways… though a new set of “consumption” or “attention” measures.

Again, this is not as half-baked as it sounds and many (like Hunter Hastings of Enterprise Marketing Management Group) are moving rapidly to put in in a package… sell it (both in theory and in practice) to those who have something to offer consumers.

Winds of Change: Ad Measurement
Do current measurement firms like comScore “get it?” Yes.  Are they moving?  Yes again… by taking small steps.  Recently, comScore decided to challenge cookie-based tracking.  Already under fire and proven to be highly faulty as a measurement device, most (if not all) of online advertising relies on the use of cookies. 

Mohanbir Sawhney said it best…

“To measure audiences more accurately, it is important to link visits to unique individuals, not unique cookies. 

As privacy programs become more entrenched, cookie-based audience counts will get even more unreliable.”

Bottom line: Consumer privacy concerns (fears of Big Brother Google watching them EVERYWHERE via things like Google-Doubleclick) are being driven by cookies which are unreliable anyway.  The answer?  THROW OUT COOKIES! 

Damn the Cookies Full Steam Ahead!
That’s exactly where we’re heading and Google is leading the charge along with somewhat reluctant helpers like comScore who must work quickly given how the industry itself is trying to force comScore into accountability (via audits of its methods).  This will not be easy for comScore especially given how new firms like Compete.com are stepping forward with answers on measuring consumer attention/engagement (that are not limited to a panel environment, as comScore is).

Suddenly Accountable
Indeed, accountability… a recurring theme in today’s advertising world where relationships between marketers and ad agencies seem ready to collapse.  Why?  Accountability.  Marketers feel strongly that ad agencies don’t have any.  Why?  In essence, because they don’t know how to plan to integrate (with larger campaigns), measure and optimize online media (again, along side of other traditional media)... and it shows.

Meanwhile, the currency of advertising itself is setting up to change—with accountability and transparency in mind.  Advertising itself (as a concept) is beginning to evolve into something radically new.

Exchanges: Shifting Power, Cutting Cost
Already we see companies like Root Networks keenly focused on what many (like Steve Gillmor) have long called the “attention economy.” Root Networks, similar to the Attention Trust, seeks to empower consumers by effectively giving them a place to put their “attention data” (think “breadcrumbs” on where they’ve been on the Web, how they routinely interact with it).  They want to give consumers the means to lock it up, keep it safe (private) and able to auction off if and when they feel like it.  An exchange for attention metadata.  Today, AOL gets in trouble for releasing browsing history of its users.  Tomorrow they don’t have the legal right to own it or, of course, auction it off.

Radical for sure but impossible?  Hardly—in a world of consumers who already reject the intrusiveness of advertising and demands (and is getting used to) control.

Once again, front-and-center to all of this consumer empowerment is the concept of advertising accountability.  At the nerve center are people like Marketing Evolution’s, Rex Briggs.  Mr. Briggs, author of What Sticks, understands that most ad agencies are wasting valuable time by dwelling on proving that online advertising is effective… rather than focusing on improving ROI.  Most agencies are not making integrated, real time campaign optimization the end goal. 

Not to mention how important it is to come to grips with reality: advertising itself is radically transforming into a “discussion” with consumers (one that they control).  Indeed, as Doc Searles, Dave Weinberger and Chris Locke of Cluetrain Manifesto predicted years ago.

Some seek to democratize the entire ad buying and selling process to bring additional cost efficiencies into the mix.  We see the likes of Yahoo (YHOO) investing in advertising exchanges (RightMedia) that “eBay-ify” the advertising buying process.  As well, LeadPoint.com and Doubleclick offer lead and display ad placement exchanges with the former being quite robust, funded, in possession of an experienced management team and seeing strong early-market adoption. 

Bear in mind that advertising exchanges, although relevant, represent “cost correction” in a world still invested in the status quo (page views, clicks, cost-per-action models, etc.). 

Keeping Perspective
It’s important to keep perspective on the domestic market.

Online advertising: $10 billion
TV advertising: $65 billion

If Google is going to be a big advertising player it’s going to need to make big moves—bigger moves than the recent $3.1 Doubleclick acquisition.  I’m convinced that Google will grow, yes, by providing a better means to buy, sell, schedule and optimize in the short term.  Yet they are also working with key power brokers (that Google needs) to bring about completely new measures and ad revenue models.  We can see the early signs today.

Says Mr. Harrelson, “Honestly, I think Amazon will ‘beat’ Google in the long long run.  That’s blasphemous but Amazon is the ‘Apple of the Web’ whereas Google will soon follow in the well-worn road most taken by Microsoft and IBM.”

When asked how soon Mr. Harrelson stands firm, “It won’t be soon but 5-10 years from now we’ll all be Amazonin.”

He says this is more about “Google enabling for the contextualization and monetization of all data that belongs, and is generated by, a person.  It also has to do with the simple fact that data storage is becoming so cheap that Google wants to run the tables before Amazon has the chance to chip away at its lead.”

As for how advertising’s new currency (consumers’ attention) plays into this Mr. Harrelson responds, “Soon, amazon and yahoo will be paying you to host your data with them.  Take that to the bank.”