As Brad Waller recently wrote, “Numbers Don’t Lie, But You Can Lie With Numbers.” I’ve harped on the ”research that is pure propaganda“ issue before so I’ll skip that part.

Recently, Insight Express was commissioned by ValueClick (Nasdaq: VCLK) to pump out a survey that reveals, they tell us, increased reliance on ad networks among online advertisers.  Hmmm.  Why would ValueClick need to declare such news and is this just publicly traded performance puffery?  In my opinion it is and I’ll get to why in a moment.

I was speaking with an analyst recently who suggested that the numbers presented actually sounded troubling, not encouraging for networks.  Here’s the rub using the study’s own numbers: 

If 42% of advertisers have increased there ad network spending in the last 2 years that means the difference between 78% (the percent of those who reportedly work with them) and 42% (or 36%) has stayed the same or decreased. 

I’m told, by analysts themselves, that many are downgrading ad networks’ stock.  I poked around and confirmed the trend.  Surprise, surprise… large advertisers are not using networks as much as they have in the past.  They’ve been there, done that and might continue to a bit but they (and/or their agencies) are exploring other venues such as blogs and podcasts. Yes, I said podcasts. 

Increasingly, publishers are creating direct sales forces and investing heavily in courting advertisers direct.  It’s all over the place.  Although positive on online advertising overall, Buisnessweek recently stated the good news for agencies and in-house ad media buyers:

“Increasing fragmentation of the media landscape should steadily increase the value of and revenue potential in media planning.”

Does this mean networks are doomed?  Certainly not and the largest ad network, Google (GOOG), will continue to roll out and improve on easy-to-use, networked ad solutions… but even those improvements are aimed at facilitating what the market wants: direct-to-publisher relationships.  Google’s own struggle with the “direct versus network” conundrum is clear and provides additional insight into what advertisers and publishers want - more transparency and advertising accountability on the Web.