Affiliate marketing’s future looks bright but a lot different than the current landscape.  Careful observation of trends indicates dramatic change is on the horizon.

Valueclick / CJ
Consider Valueclick’s (NASDAQ: VCLK) recent shift within its Commission Junction unit—toward a more “media” centric world when it decided to change the most fundamental of all operational tasks (linking).  In the end, the move gives more power to the network and, perhaps, the advertiser.  When it comes to understanding the data-driven economics of affiliate marketing Valueclick will hold the power position moving forward.  Sound Google-like?  You betcha.  In fact Commission Junction goes as far as suggesting, today, that the company is henceforward part of a “significant move in the industry towards javascript links” by other companies such as Google Adsense (via Monetize).

This lead this particular affiliate to suggest…

“Everything about this initiative indicates that you are switching to a contextual advertising model and away from traditional affiliate advertising.”

Buzz, Viral & Word of Mouth
Consider the myriad of highly experienced, respected industry veterans who see a future for “traditional” affiliate marketing that looks a lot more like word-of-mouth / viral and buzz marketing.

Emerging Product Data Goliaths
While most of the “product data feed management” discussion in affiliate marketing is focused on Feedshare, GoldenCAN and similar technologies affiliate managers would be wise to research companies like ChannelAdvisor, Channel Intelligence, Mercent and Truition.  I recommend reading up on companies like eToys (PDF) and take note of how affiliate marketing is becoming a cog in a multifaceted, highly automated wheel—less of a stand alone marketing strategy.

Last week, Seattle-based Mercent (a company founded by the same team who originally developed the Amazon Services unit) rolled out the retail industry’s first search engine solution to quantify keyword performance by client-identified business metrics—metrics like return on advertising spend.  Quite literally this allows marketers to “pre-set” business rules that allow them to automatically adjust keyword bids within a range that results in results in a ROI metric such as return on ad spend.

As an example, when working with pay-per-click search engines or comparison engines, Buy.com may set a rule that it will only pay $1.50 - $1.90 for the term “Toshiba Flat Screen” providing that ROI works out to an ad spend of $0.35 for every $1 in revenue produced.  Buy.com can also factor in how fast a particular keyword produces (turns inventory) and raise its budget assuming that the keyword can produce a volume threshold.

An Automated Future?
What does this mean for affiliate marketing?  Mercent suggests that it can automate similarly and has named Linkshare and Commission Junction as partners.  I say again as partners. 

The Future: Affiliate Managers
Such a future could signal a re-writing of the typical affiliate managers’ job descriptions given the “freeing” aspect of such tech tools.  Less time may be spent fussing with newsletters and more time with analyzing data to create better business rules that enhance a more important metric (versus sales and conversion).  In the future, affiliate managers may very well require a background in analytics much like search managers do today.

Will affiliate managers be automated out of existence?  Allow me to cut off the critics and suggest absolutely not.  I’m suggesting that they may, however, require a new skill set in a more “performance media” dominated world.