“Social networking sites might be the hottest thing on the Web in 2007, but a decade from now we’ll barely remember Second Life, Facebook or MySpace.  Instead, gaming services like Blizzard’s World of Warcraft and Microsoft’s Xbox Live will prove to have formed the most stable, robust, influential and useful social networks.

Web 2.0-style user-generated, participatory content will ultimately prove mostly novelty.  A few of the bigger, better-managed sites will survive, but most of the ‘here’s every niggling detail about my life’ sites will wither away.”

David Ewalt
Staff Writer, Forbes.com

Upon being named CEO…

“The whole idea of a siloed e-mail provider as a business moving forward is limiting. I think there is a tremendous opportunity to combine e-mail marketing with other interactive services.”

Al DiGuido
CEO
Zustek
(Via Direct Magazine’s Ken Magill)

Yup.  Take a look at J.L. Halsey Corp.—they understand as much and posted record quarterly revenue.

Reacting to a Google-ass kissing Business Week article and Yankee Group analyst, Linda Barrabee…

Barrabee: “The day is coming when wireless users will experience nirvana scenarios–mobile ads tied to your individual behavior, what you are doing, and where you are.”

“Here’s my nirvana scenario, Linda

1. No damn advertising at all.  I don’t care how warm and fuzzy Google is, I don’t want to be tracked like an animal and ‘targeted’ with anything, least of all guesswork about what I want, no matter how educated that guesswork is.

2. Tools on my phone that let me tell sellers what I want, and on my terms – and not just on theirs.  Whether that’s a latte two exits up the highway, next restaurant that serves seared ahi, or where I can buy an original metal slinky.

3. I want to be able to notify the market of my shopping or buying intentions without revealing who I am, unless it’s on mutually agreed-upon terms.

Quick: Who wants their cell phone to be a ‘mini marketing machine’? And why would a BusinessWeek reporter even begin to think anybody would want that?

One huge reason we get these endless rah-rah stories framed by Advertising Goodness is that advertising pays the salaries of the writers. There is no ‘Chinese wall’ between advertising and editorial. It may seem like there is, but there isn’t.  Follow the money.”

Doc Searls

It seems that few understand what’s really going on behind Microsoft’s (MSFT) acquisition of Jellyfish.com.  Analysts are poo-pooing it as “not a ‘game changer’” as Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer suggested the company would be offering up.  Not so fast, David Hallerman of eMarketer.  Google understands the game is about to change and is moving.  MSFT is paying attention and is locking up intellectual property in this move—one that combines multiple, successful and innovative digital shopping models.

According to Sam Harrelson (CostPerNews.com, Revenews.com), he sees

“... the Jellyfish.com acquisition as another sign that Microsoft is aiming more for the merchant/retail segment of online advertising rather than the shotgun approach of Google (GOOG) with AdSense and Yahoo’s (YHOO) with its publisher network.  Instead of focusing on context, they seem to be coming at the online advertising space from a very ‘vertical-minded’ approach.”

I agree.  As well, they’re attacking in a very deliberate manner with a fundamentally different approach to Web advertising and media. 

MSFT’s approach is and will continue to be much different than GOOG’s or YHOO’s—who have relied for too long on highly “open” and, in fact, vulnerable (to systematic gaming by third party affiliates) advertising platforms.  Of course, this has enriched each company—wildly so—but for how long? The writing is all over the wall (i.e. FTC probing VCLK’s use of incentivized marketing, mounting class action lawsuits aimed at GOOG and YHOO’s traffic ‘quality’ claims as compared to what they deliver).

What’s next for Web advertising?  NOT what we’ve seen and MSFT is all over this notion.  They’re bring more structure to the table—less chaos wherein third party affiliates feed them. Web advertising is becoming more deliberate… it’s being tamed and reigned in.

Advertisers have been slow to wake up to the “slop” that passes for ROI and return on ad spend. They’re beginning to measure and what they’re seeing is not pretty.

The “it’s not a game changer” conclusion relies on things not changing much in terms of how the Web gets monetized.  Even Google understands what’s coming next—a slow-down in pay-per-click ad model spending.

Proof’s in the puddin: Look no further than Google’s:

1) Launching a cost-per-action ("pay-per-action") ad model
2) Launching a tool allowing advertisers to manage (automate placement of) pay-per-click ads against a pre-defined cost-per-action

Google understands the game is about to change and is moving.  Is anyone paying attention?  MSFT is and they’re locking up intellectual property in this move—one that combines multiple, successful and innovative digital shopping models.

Jellyfish takes a best of breed approach and “mashes them up” to the amusement of consumers: Ebates + Woot.com and on the advertiser-side, eBay’s Shopping.com + Google’s AdWords auction environment + Commission Junction’s (VCLK) performance-based cost model (cost-per-action) with a twist of Google (auctioning off ads).

It all ads up to valuable IP that Google, in theory, cannot access.

“In nature, ecosystems are dynamic.  The denizens of an ecosystem don’t simply live peaceably side by side; they exist in symbiotic harmony.  They benefit, interact with and feed each other.  And to survive, ecosystems adapt to change.  Because of these characteristics, an ecosystem is the perfect metaphor for a customer loyalty strategy.”

Bryan Pearson
President of Alliance Data Loyalty Services
(via CMO Magazine)

"Marketing is the management process of delivering customer satisfaction.”

Tom Miller
Miller Brooks

(via MB Journal)